GUYSBOROUGH — The riding of Central Nova took centre stage in the federal election campaign on Tuesday with word that Sean Fraser will seek a fourth consecutive term as its Member of Parliament (MP).
As reported by the CBC on Tuesday morning, the former Liberal cabinet minister – with party leader Mark Carney by his side – would be announcing his candidacy at an event later in the day.
The change of heart for the lawyer came after his announcement in December that he would not run in the next federal election, citing his desire to relieve the stress on is personal life, including limited time with his young family.
When Fraser stepped away, he was the federal housing minister. The StFX graduate also served as immigration minister in former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s cabinets. He was first elected in the Liberal majority victory in 2015.
Joining Fraser on the ballot at this time are Brycen Jenkins (Conservatives), Jesiah MacDonald (NDP) and Charles MacEachern (PPC).
The geography of Central Nova includes all of Pictou County, the Municipality of the District of St. Mary’s and the eastern part of the Halifax Regional Municipality.
As for the neighbouring Cape Breton-Canso-Antigonish, formerly known as Cape Breton-Canso, which is made up of Antigonish town and county, the Municipality of the District of Guysborough, Inverness, Richmond and Victoria counties, along with parts of Cape Breton County, the frontrunners are expected to be a pair of candidates who are familiar to voters.
Liberal Jaime Battiste, who was elected as Canada’s first Mi’kmaw MP for the former Sydney-Victoria in 2019, will be his party’s candidate. Initially, after the realignment of federal boundaries, he said he would seek the nomination in the newly formed Sydney-Glace Bay.
When the proposed re-drawing of districts by a federal electoral boundaries commission were implemented last year, the Eskasoni and Wagmatcook First Nations were removed from the former Sydney-Victoria, which was renamed Sydney-Glace Bay. Battiste, a lawyer, made a court challenge to the removal of those communities, deeming it unconstitutional and going against treaty rights and the United Nations Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples. Last fall, he announced that he lost his case.
Allan MacMaster is no stranger to the political stage, a well-known former Nova Scotia finance minister, who served as the MLA representing Inverness for the provincial Progressive Conservatives before throwing his hat into the federal ring.
“It should be a tough fight,” Bickerton said of an anticipated race between the Battiste and MacMaster.
He explained that MacMaster will benefit from the “support base” he established in his time at the provincial level, particularly in the communities that were a part of his Inverness riding as an MLA. And, although it is “not the riding he wanted to run in,” Battiste has a “fairly high profile.” He will also benefit from the Liberal surge in Atlantic Canada, if it continues; not to mention the party’s strength in the province since 1993 in federal elections.
Joanne Clark of the New Democratic Party, a young mother and recent university graduate who served on the provincial executive for the Canadian Federation of Students. Judith Clifford is carrying the banner for the People’s Party of Canada (PPC).
As of press time, there were no declared candidates for the Green Party of Canada in either riding.
Candidate nominations close on Monday, April 7, at 2 p.m.
The national scene
After the federal Liberal party elected Carney as their leader on March 9, the economist and former governor of the Bank of Canada was sworn in as prime minister – less than one week later – on March 14. In a finish to a whirlwind of less than two weeks for the political newcomer, he visited Governor General Mary Simon on Sunday morning (March 23), making the traditional request of the monarchy’s representative to dissolve parliament – a move that triggers an election in the Canadian federal electoral system.
At dissolution of the 44th Parliament, the minority governing Liberals had 152 seats, followed by the Conservatives (120), Bloc Quebecois (33), NDP (24) and Green Party (two). There were also three independent MPs and four vacant seats.
“It will be the dominant issue,” Bickerton offered of the impact of U.S. President Donald Trump on the vote north of the border, considering his threats around tariffs and annexation.
The Trudeau Liberals, who won three consecutive elections – one majority and two minorities, will be vying for their fourth consecutive triumph under Carney.
The Conservatives – under leader Pierre Poilievre – will be seeking the chance to form government for the first time since the departure of former PM Stephen Harper. Up until a few weeks ago, the official opposition was riding high in most opinion polls, enjoying – on average – a more than 20-point edge over the Liberals; benefitting from the wave of calls for change and opposition to the government’s carbon pricing model and other economic policies.
Describing it as a “change election,” Bickerton offered that the front runners are focussed on convincing Canadians that they and their parties will best deliver on that promise. Carney delivering the message that he is different from his Liberal predecessor, while Poilievre will stress that they are the “same old Liberals.”
“But, again, that will be all overshadowed by Trump and who will make the best prime minister to handle this tricky situation,” Bickerton said.
Turning of the tide?
Since the resignation of Trudeau – and the ongoing threat of tariffs and annexation coming from U.S. – the Liberals have surged in the polls, with most now showing them and the Conservatives in a dead heat as the campaign ramps up.
“Unprecedented,” Bickerton said of “quite a swing” in the polls over a short period of time.
He noted there have been situations, such as Prime Minister Kim Campbell carrying momentum after replacing the late Brian Mulroney before her and her PCs ended up being “blown out” by Jean Chrétien and the Liberals in 1993, but those dramatic fluctuations came during an election campaign.
Bickerton added, “I have never seen anything like this [change in the polls].”
Agreeing that not long ago a Conservative majority looked like a “sure thing,” he offered that the Trudeau resignation and Trump factor “completely changed the game.”
He added, “Things moved in a totally different direction.”
Noting that Poilievre and his party were left “grappling with the [sudden] change,” Bickerton suggested that they “struggled to find their feet.”
Nevertheless, despite the shift in the polls, he said the Conservatives’ “solid core is unlikely to desert them” – one that has translated into 32-34 per cent range nationally for quite some time.
“They packed the place,” Bickerton said of the party’s campaign launch event in Toronto on Sunday.
Describing the NDP campaign under leader Jagmeet Singh as one to “save the furniture,” he offered that the Poilievre will have to combat the long-standing challenge of those third-party voters casting ballots for Liberal candidates in order to help keep the Conservatives from forming government.
In a CBC analysis on Monday afternoon of where the polls stood just prior to the launch of the federal campaign, the Liberals (37.7 per cent) and Conservatives (37) were neck-and-neck, with the NDP and Bloc Québécois coming in at 11.4 and 6.4 per cent, respectively, with the Greens at 3.9, followed by the PPC (2.3) and ‘Other’ (1.4).
In Atlantic Canada, Bickerton noted, the Liberals are at 50 per cent or more in some polls, having recovered from a strong challenge from the Conservatives. That resurgence has sparked talk of the party sweeping the seats in the region.
‘Very intense campaign’
Reiterating the effect of the Trump factor, when asked about key factors as the campaign unfolds, Bickerton suggested observers will be keeping an eye on how Carney and Poilievre (to a lesser extent) perform. He noted it is Carney’s first one as a candidate – let alone as a federal party leader – and Poilievre’s debut as Conservative leader for a national vote.
“He is still kind of an unknown,” Bickerton offered of Carney, while noting Poilievre – a veteran MP – is someone Canadians are “more familiar with” in the political arena.
He pointed out that a key for Poilievre will be his ability to shake the perception that he is “Trump lite,” when he comes to what he will bring to the role of prime minister. Bickerton noted shaking that label wasn’t helped by Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, who – in a March 8 interview with Breitbart, a right-wing U.S. media outlet – said that Poilievre is more aligned with the Trump administration’s agenda.
The StFX political scientist said there is also the idea that an inexperienced Carney may get tripped up at times, citing the French language debate as a potential example.
“In what should a very intense campaign, it is really going to tell the tale,” Bickerton offered of how Carney “holds up” over a short timeframe.
Although some pundits have described the surge in support for the Liberals as “soft,” he predicted that it “will not collapse,” describing it as “an amazing comeback,” whether they return to power or form a “strong opposition.”
If the popular vote “remains close,” Bickerton said that will give the Liberals a “clear advantage” – because of the wider distribution of their support in key regions – when it comes to winning more seats.
“But, again, it can all change,” he added.
The 45th federal general election will be held on Monday, April 28.
