Editorial

January 8 2025

2025 promises new political challenges, opportunities

The upcoming political year will be very interesting, to say the least, based on how 2024 finished. Whether it’s the rapidly unfolding political drama on the federal scene, or the expanded mandate of the Houston government at Province House, with an opposition that will need time to transition, there will be no shortage of intrigue for Nova Scotians in 2025.

Let us start in Ottawa. Prime Minister Trudeau has announced his resignation, which will take effect when the new Liberal leader is chosen – likely in early March.

The discussion at a Liberal caucus meeting on Wednesday (Jan. 8) will now be about next steps in the leadership process. That will likely include details about the upcoming leadership campaign.

The Prime Minister has already received approval of the Governor General to prorogue parliament. Prorogation means that the House will return not return as scheduled on Jan. 27 but at a specific time ordered by the Governor General. We now know that will be March 24. Without prorogation, the Liberals would clearly lose any confidence vote in the House, thereby triggering an election.

This is not without precedence. Fresh off a minority election win in 2008, but facing certain defeat in the Commons, Prime Minister Stephen Harper asked for and received permission to prorogue the House by Governor General Michaëlle Jean. That prorogation lasted six weeks. This time around the Liberals have received a 10-week delay before parliament will resume.

The opposition parties have indicated that they will vote to bring down the government at the earliest opportunity. All of this could mean that a confidence vote could happen soon after parliament returns.

On March 24, there will be a Speech from the Throne, outlining the new priorities of the government. After the debate, there will be a vote on the speech, which is a confidence vote. The government will also need to pass a supply bill as quickly as possible upon parliament’s return. Should the government fail either vote, parliament will dissolve, and an election will be called.

Given all of this, some parliament watchers are circling May 5 or 12 as possible election dates. As for the federal election locally, former Liberal cabinet minister Sean Fraser has announced he will not be offering in the redistributed riding of Central Nova. Meanwhile, in the new riding of Cape Breton-Canso-Antigonish, it remains to be seen who will be standing for the various federal parties.

At Province House, things are much clearer and not nearly as dramatic. Premier Houston is fresh off a huge election victory. Unlike some of his fellow premiers, such as Blaine Higgs in New Brunswick or Heather Stefanson in Manitoba, Houston more than bucked the trend of throwing out the incumbent government. He grew his majority, while the Liberal Leader of the Opposition, Zach Churchill, lost his seat. There will still be political drama to be found at the provincial level; it will be centred on the future of the Nova Scotia Liberal Party and how they get back to challenging for government.

All of which makes for remarkably interesting times for voters and political watchers in Nova Scotia..